Pigou lag falsch, und Keynes ist tot ...

weissgarnix , Samstag, 23.02.2008, 05:37 (vor 6548 Tagen)

Hi,

wen es interessiert, ich habe einem smarten Herrn Professor Laurent, der der EZB im Wirtschafts-Blog der FTD gerade massig Vorwürfe zu ihrer Inflationspolitik gemacht hat, folgendes getextet. Der Mann tappt meiner Meinung nach so krass im Dunkeln, dass einem seine Studenten nur leid tun können, zumal er ein echtes Problem des EU Arbeitsmarktes wirklich erkennt und auch beim Namen nennt, nämlich die starren und (aktuell starrer werdenden Strukturen) an den Arbeitsmärkten. Ist allerdings in Englisch.

Pigou was wrong and Keynes is dead ...

"Your article goes at great lengths to describe why the ECB may not be right in their reasoning to focus on inflation more than anything else. However, the most important point you leave unanswered: why should they cut rates now ?

You are right that this is what has been done elsewhere, most notably in the US by the FED and during the recent past in Japan by the BoJ. But: has it yielded them anything, other than the proverbial “flower-pot” (as we say in German) ? No, not really. Japan never really has recovered from their crisis, despite all the good efforts, despite sending their currency to the lowest level in decades, it is still at the verge of deflation. And in the US ? – Well, I think it is fair to say that the rate cuts so far haven’t shown much positive effect, or, to speak with PIMCO’s Bill Gross, no effect at all.

The Central banks of this planet have done their utmost, I believe, and the results are not exactly overwhelming. No big surprise therefore, to hear a growing chorus of experts (amongst them Larry Summers, Dominique Strauss-Kahn in recent contributions in the FT), argue the good old “fiscal stimulus”, first and foremost to be kicked off in countries with high trade surpluses, such as China, Japan and Germany. But if that’s to become the political leitmotiv, i.e. to try and stimulate the economy through higher government spending, then I ask you, why should the ECB take a more relaxed stance towards interest rates, when they see current inflation rates way beyond their targets, and higher fiscal deficits looming ?

Besides, I believe you miss another very important aspect of this crisis: there is still far too much “bad debt” in the system, not restricted to subprime or housing, but across the board. If politicians and central bankers are reluctant to have this bad debt purged, then at least the ECB should be brave enough to restrain the problems at current levels and not add another load of shaky loans to the bulk of existing ones. For this, I believe, they should rather be applauded.

Fact of the matter is though, and sorry to be so pessimistic in closing, neither the ECB or any other central bank for that matter, nor the governments of this world by increasing their budget deficits, can do very much against a spread of the crisis. If the current crunch is to go round and infect various sectors of the world economy, it will do so. Pigou and Marshall weren’t even right during their lifetimes, and Keynes is dead, too."

Vielleicht läßt sich Herrr Professor ja dazu herab, und schreibt mir was hübsches zurück, das machen die ab und an ...

nachzulesen ist das ganze hier: http://www.ftd.de/wirtschaftswunder/index.php?op=ViewArticle&articleId=1196&blo...