Die konträre Ansicht – UCLA Anderson Report: Keine US-Rezession

Danke, Jabberwock, für die Ansicht. Um die eigene Meinung zu überprüfen, sind die Artikel wertvoll. Auf der UCLA - HP konnte man leider nichts Aktuelles finden.
Die Indizes für eine kommende Rezession mehren sich, aber noch fehlt die Tiefe und Dauer des Einschnitts, zudem fokussiert sich die Kontraktion vornehmlich auf den Immobiliensektor.

Die Wachstumsrate der wöchentlichen Frühindikatoren des ECRI hat mittlerweile zweistellig negative Werte erlangt, trotzdem halten sie sich noch zurück.

Das ECRI vom 4.3.2008:

Warning labels
"Everyone comes with a warning label," says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting firm.

Achuthan believes that the economy might be in a slowdown - in which growth rates are shrinking but still positive - but not in a recession, when growth turns negative.

"What happens in a recession is you have a sequence of events that feeds on itself," he says.

"First, sales fall. That results in weaker production, which results in a weaker job market, which then pulls down income, which loops back to the front of the line and pulls down sales," he says.

That is why the bureau, in determining business cycles, focuses on industrial production, wholesale/retail sales, employment and income. (GDP is also important, but comes out quarterly, after a significant lag. The others come out at least monthly.)

For there to be a recession, there must be a "pronounced, pervasive, persistent decline" in these four indicators, Achuthan says.

"If they all fell for one month, it doesn't mean you had a one-month recession. It has to persist for six months at a minimum. And it has to be in the neighborhood of declines we have seen in the past."

Jobless rate indicative
Of the four main indicators, the only one "that has moved in a recessionary way without a doubt is the unemployment rate. It looks similar to past recessions," Achuthan says. The payroll component of the employment report, however, is not clearly recessionary. (Friday's employment report will be closely watched.)

Sales also seem to be headed down. On the other hand, incomes - after a brief dip - have turned up again while industrial production has rebounded to its 2007 highs.

Many economists are saying that the economy is in a recession now, but will reaccelerate toward the end of the year. Achuthan disagrees with both ideas.

"The indicators say we are not in a recession yet. The jury is out yet as to whether policymakers," namely the Federal Reserve and Congress, provided stimulus quickly enough to avoid a recession, he says.

"I'm disagreeing with the bears who say a recession is under way. I'm also disagreeing with the bulls who are saying there's a rebound at the end of the year. I don't have any objective evidence that we are out of the woods."

Where does this leave consumers and investors?

People "should be more conservative, more risk averse," in case there is a recession, Achuthan says. But they should also plan for a recovery. For example, this might not be the best time to buy a house, but it could be a good time to shop around and figure out your financing.

"Likewise with the markets: If a full-blown recession occurs," a bear market in stocks will probably be part of it, Achuthan says. "This isn't the time to be risking your savings. But you can still watch and be prepared for the recession running its course."

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