SILBER (und Gold): das sieht nach einer veritablen Bärenfalle aus

Die Hälfte des Minicrashs ist schon wieder aufgeholt, und die Aufholjagd
zeigt keine Ermüdungserscheinungen.

Das Szenario mit der großen Abwärtskorrekturwelle muß möglicherweise
zurück in die Schublade.

MI

Alf Field sieht das so

“As mentioned, the gold market is now dealing with Large wave II, which is anticipated to be a correction of approximately 16%. Corrections are notoriously difficult to analyse and can come in all sorts of complex formations absorbing varying amounts of time. We will wait to see how this correction evolves and will analyse it in a future edition of these Updates.

The current underlying fundamental financial and economic circumstances are chronic. The recent Bear Stearns episode could only have occurred if the US financial structure was on the verge of a systemic melt down. The evidence allows for no other interpretation.

In the same way that the bankruptcy of two Bear Stearns hedge funds in June 2007 marked the tip of the iceberg of the sub-prime crisis, the demise of Bear Stearns itself may well be the tip of the iceberg marking the start of major counter-party problems in the OTC derivatives market. There will almost certainly be more situations akin to Bear Stearns.

With this scary fundamental situation underlying the markets, it is realistic to anticipate that the current correction in the gold price may be sub-normal, i.e. less than the 16% expected decline, and may be over fairly quickly. A “normal” large correction of 16% from $1011 would produce a target of around $850. A 12% correction, which is possible in these circumstances, would produce a target of about $890. If the 12% decline is calculated from the cash market high price of $1033, the target becomes about $910.

It seems that any price below $900 represents a buying opportunity, especially when we consider what comes next in this gold bull market. What comes next is Large III of Major THREE. Readers of these Updates will be familiar with the “third of the third” concept. This is the time when one can expect the strongest and most violent gains. Entering a period of “third of the third” at the two largest wave magnitudes portends a great deal of excitement. It is not the time to be too cute. It is a time to fasten seat belts and hold on grimly.”

http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1206367524.php

Gruß, wuzge

Bis lang hat es während des ganzen Anstiegs kein Beispiel für eine glatte, einwellige Korrektur gegeben. Deswegen traue ich dem Braten auch noch nicht.

Gruß
Nachfrager

Ich dachte, gemäß Elliott-Analyse von Weihnachten 2007

hätte Gold bei $931/oz (die rote Kurve nachgemessen) seinen Höhepunkt gehabt und wäre seitdem in einer Abwärtsbewegung?

Oder was genau sind die Fehlergrenzen der "Rote-Pfeil-Prognose"?