ABX update: leicht erholt (mT)

Per_Jakobsson, Samstag, 12.01.2008, 09:35 (vor 6724 Tagen) @ DT

Danke für Deine regelmässigen Meldungen zum ABX-Markt. Anbei noch etwas Research zum Thema (HVB, unter dem angegebenen Link als PDF mit Charts abrufbar: "Economic Flash")

Grüsse

Per

Asset Backed Commercial Paper market shows signs of stabilization
Economic Flash
by Dr. Harm Bandholz
10.01.08

The data: The Federal Reserve reported today that the volume of assetbacked commercial paper (ABCP) outstanding rose for the second straight week following twenty consecutive weeks of declines: CP backed by mortgages or credit card loans rose USD 4.8 bn to a seasonally adjusted USD 778.6 bn in the week ending January 9. During the twenty weeks between August 10 and December 28, the ABCP market shrank by a total of USD 435 bn, before it posted a USD 26.3 bn increase in the first week of 2008. At the same time, spreads between the fed funds target rate and LIBOR or the rate for asset backed securities are approaching “normal” levels (cf. chart). The spread between 3M LIBOR and the fed funds rate declined to 12.7 bn, which is the lowest since August 7 and only slightly above the 11 bp, which has been the average spread before the crisis. Similarly the spread of the fed funds and ABCP rates declined to 11 bp after reaching a maximum of 191 bp in mid-December.

The interpretation: One reason for the recent rise in the ABCP market is probably that after firms weathered the year-end funding problems, there is a lot of cash in the money market looking for some short-term investment opportunities. Another factor is the successful liquidity injections of central banks around the world. The Fed’s TAF auctions clearly helped to reduce strains in short-term funding markets and to bring rates back to more normal levels.

The outlook: The biggest risk to the US economy is that as a result of capital constraints resulting from losses on mortgages and other loans, banks would be less willing to lend to consumers, and thus be a drag on household spending. But by now, bank lending to consumers has even accelerated and with ongoing liquidity injections by the Fed and Sovereign Wealth Funds as well, we remain confident that the US consumer will be able to weather also this storm without falling into a recession.

Quelle:
http://www.hypovereinsbank.de/pub/templates/index.jsp?pageurl=/pub/io/rese/102099.jsp&a...