Angeschl. Zustand der Fed treibt POG – Silber vor Spike wg. backwardation?

Moin,

erfreuliche Nachrichtenlage für Gold- und Silberfreunde

Tom Scabo:

„My simple basis calculation, the one that is prone to timing and other errors, actually shows silver to be in backwardation right now, but this is mostly due to the afterhours rally that boosted the closing cash price. During periods of high market volatility, I have gotten a number of false backwardation readings from this calculation, so one day's worth of backwardation for the "simple" basis is meaningless. But what isn't meaningless is that my proprietary basis figure (the one I will be providing and discussing as part of the new service to be launched soon) has also moved perilously close to backwardation in the last two days, although it hasn't crossed over yet.

Interestingly, backtesting of my proprietary basis calculation has revealed that a similar pattern played out in early 2006. In fact, a major change in the basis and futures spreads commenced on January 24, 2006, culminating in prolonged backwardation and inverted spreads in futures during April and May 2006 as silver went parabolic. An inverted spread in futures is similar to backwardation in that further out futures contracts trade for a lower price than those closer to maturity. These spreads may deserve a closer look now, especially with the options being so uncooperative, as a tool for generating a lot of exposure to a price spike. Yeah, I know I said too much leverage is probably going to hurt you in the weeks and months ahead, but this might be a special situation deserving of special consideration. I'll poke around and see if I can come up with something.”

http://www.silveraxis.com/

Dennis Gartmann:

“Regarding gold and the precious metals, we are long; we
have been long; we shall remain long and we've no real
choice but to add to our long positions this morning upon
receipt of this commentary as new highs are being made
across the board. Gold traded to the limit up in Japan this
morning, benefited there by the weak Japanese Yen,
which has taken gold in Yen terms to new highs. Gold in
EUR terms is trading to new highs also: EUR 618 as we
write. Gold is responding to the fact that the Fed eased
monetary policy and may have done so improperly or
unwisely in light of the SocGen Affair. The gold market is
jaundiced enough to move higher, fearing growing disdain
for the Fed, and fearing that the leadership supplied by
the Fed has been materially diminished. In that
environment, capital seeks gold. We are not happy with
that fact, but we understand that fact; we accept that fact;
we adjust our trading scheme accordingly and we move
on.“

http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/012508.pdf

Gruß an alle Gold- und Silberbullen!
wuzge