Ist da was dran ? MBIA, Ambac Downgrade noch diese Woche?
MBIA, Ambac Downgrade noch diese Woche?
Aus einem PrudentSquirrel Alert von Chris Laird:
Ratings agencies, already under fire for their way late downgrades of the mortgage derivatives are under pressure to do their job and go ahead and downgrade Ambac and MBIA
They have delayed these downgrades because of the implications such action would have on bond markets and money market funds who hold these and would have to sell if all the bonds they insure are downgraded below AAA which is required for MMFs
In spite of New York State Insurance dept efforts to get a bail out organized, it's late in the game. Barring a last min effort, it is possible an actual downgrade of either one or both MBIA and AMBAC can come this week. This is a BIG deal.
As I said previously, I just cannot see how a bailout will not happen, but it might not. The implications of not getting a bailout done are staggering. Of course, the way bonds are going these days, and all the mortgage derivatives these bond insurers have insured, and the looming hundreds of billions of losses, I can't see anyone wanting to even touch MBIA and Ambac,,,,
Hence we have not heard of any real bailout yet. But, of course, a central bank can ask a major private investor to do a deal, and just quietly underwrite the thing and hold them harmless financially.
Trouble is, many investors don't need a huge black eye if they do such a deal, even if they make a lot of money on it and have gurantees from the Fed or whomever.
"Wall Street bond rating agencies are poised to downgrade two big bond insurers, Ambac Financial Group and MBIA, even though New York state insurance regulars would like to get a postponement until the state can develop a bailout package, CNBC has learned.
Losing a Triple A rating could be devastating for the bond insurers, preventing them from drumming up new clients -- and possibly forcing them out of business.
Barring some last minute agreement on a bailout package, the downgrades could come as early as Wednesday.
