Non-Manu-ISM-Index Februar unter 50 bedeutet: USA in Rezession / YEN/EUR unter 1,55: Sturmwarnung

wuzge, Mittwoch, 05.03.2008, 09:33 (vor 6540 Tagen) @ dottore

Hi,

die Spannung steigt! Heute kommen wichtige Zahlen (u.a. Auftragseingänge
und vor allem der Non-Manu-ISM-Index, 16.00 h, Beige Book usw.).

Hallo allerseits,

TGL schätzt den Non-Manu-ISM-Index Februar auf 47,0 (nach 44,6 im Januar). Dies würde bedeuten, dass sich die USA endgültig in der Rezession befinden. Der YEN/EUR cross, dass Thermometer für die Risikobereitschaft des globalen Kapitalmarktes, hat ein massives Mehr-Monats-Top ausgebildet. Ein Abrutschen unter die 1,55-Marke bedeutet: Sturm ahead! (YEN/EUR-Chart-Analyse siehe Link , Seite 1 unten)

Gruß
wuzge

“Moving on to the economic data that Dr. Mishkin and Mr.
Fisher shall be concerned about, the ISM's
non-manufacturing index for February is due later this
morning at 1500 GMT and it is expected to be at or near
47.0 in February compared to January's 44.6. Some will
take solace in this "increase," and we'll not argue that
47.0 is better than 44.6; however, that shall still be below
the important "boom or bust" level of 50... and it would be
the second month in a row that it was there. Three
months of weakening numbers for Leading Economic
Indicators; months and months wherein the ratio of the
Coincident to Lagging Indicators continues to fall, and
now two months in a row of less than 50 for the ISM
non-manufacturing index and we have all that we need to
know that the US is in recession...oh, and notification
from Mr. Buffett earlier this week on CNBC that we are!”

“THE YEN VS. EUR
CROSS:
A Massive Multi-Month
Top Has Formed:
The EUR/YEN cross, as it is
referred to in the fx
market, is the thermometre
of the global capital market,
and it is breaking down.
Having made its high last
summer, each high has been
lower since, with each
interim top almost perfectly
co-extensive with a top in
the TGL Int'l Index. A
break downward through 155
would be more than merely
significant: it would be
ominous!.“

http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/030508.pdf