Randall: Deflation vor Hyperinflation

boso , Sonntag, 23.11.2008, 07:30 (vor 6002 Tagen) @ boso

in Randalls Artikel
A Deflationary Collapse Followed by Hyperinflation
beschreibt er den zeitlichen Ablauf des jetzt ablaufenden Mechanismus folgendermaßen:

HOWEVER, the political forces will be out in earnest encouraging the
Central Bank to start winding up Ben Bernanke’s infamous helicopter to monetize debt (inflation)
at extraordinary rates, but there is a huge problem with conducting this rescue operation under
today’s conditions. Those holding massive dollars and dollar-based assets all over the world will
have a real issue with their stake withering in value (deflation) proportional to the rate of money
printing (inflation). They will “get it”…! As they “get it” on a visible scale, they will be
motivated to dump the dollars and dollar based assets (deflation) before they become totally
worthless. This much more powerful market force of those who “get it” will facilitate a
downward spiraling asset devaluation UNTIL the inflated asset bubbles have shrunk significantly
enough (deflation) and the rate of money printing (inflation) by the less powerful Central Bank
finally overwhelms the slowing rate of asset devaluation. I anticipate this will be 1-3 years.
Ultimately, the hyperinflation will dominate goods and services, all assets, and even the family
pets.
The Internal Restraint in Our Central Bank to Blatant Monetization
Mind you, there is a contingent of “hawks” within our own central bank resistant to literally
dropping billions out of helicopters overnight. This resistance favors the likelihood of asset
deflation before the “hawks” finally capitulate and support massive hyperinflation. This debt
monetization behavior on a massive scale would be as obvious as a pathetic third-world fiat
currency debasement stunt performed time and again throughout history. i.e. if it is pathetically
obvious to the masses, investors and the governments representing them will be pressured to
dump the rapidly depreciating dollars and dollar-based assets regardless of the consequences on
the world economy. Eventually, as the economy sinks into depression and the asset valuations
drop to more rational levels, our central bank monetary helicopter expansionists will gain the
upper hand. They will be forced to “Inflate or Die”… regardless of the sentiments of our
screaming hapless long-time trading partners.
Conclusion
The more powerful market force of deflation will have the upper hand initially because of the size
of the credit market bubble that must be diffused today; approx. $30 trillion (3). The opposing
force of inflation by the central bank will pale initially in comparison. Their efforts to create yet
another illusion by papering over the credit contraction with $50-100 billion a week (e.g. post 9-
11 & post Katrina) monetization injections will lose to the greater force ($30 trillion bubble) for 1-2 years, then will finally take over. At that stage the momentum of inflation will be in its own
Ponzi self-feeding frenzy, thus launching us into the hyperinflationary phase. At some point the
dollar will follow the same fate as countless fiat currencies have in history… It will become
worthless. At that point I am optimistic real money (gold, silver, etc.) will return at center stage
and keep a very short leash on the “Financial Cartel” to prevent them from re-launching another
systemic speculative charade of illusory financial wealth that would lead us yet again down the
same reoccurring path in history.
by Russell Randall 1-19-2008
Austrian Enginomic Home page: www.austrianenginomics.com

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“I am more concerned with the return of my money
than the return on my money”

Mark Twain